On Cyprus Part 2 - Votes and Interests

0 - 36 - 19. And now the games continue...

This development was not unexpected. The Cypriot Parliament had the backing not only of Cypriots and Russians in saying No but also of most of the world's expert opinion. This obviously made the 'heroic' decision of the Cypriot politicians far easier to make. 

However, they took their time making it, most of them while indulging in patriotic/ party and other forms of propaganda. The most destructive in this sense was Mr Kyprianou of AKEL who, as it seems, thought that he was campaigning in some sort of election, showing us all that Cyprus lacks a responsible Left with any sense of self-awareness and, most importantly, shame. Apart from Mr. Kyprianou who infuriated all of twitter, facebook and the world in general, other politicians seemed like they were expecting a round of applause  from their audience, which was of course bigger than usual since the debate was televised. 

Mr Karogian I am talking about you! 

Cloud over a Cypriot street

In Cyprus we have learned to say 'Δεν Ξεχνώ' (I don't forget), from a young age in reference to the Turkish invasion and occupation. Though this is not the time to point fingers, we should also not forget that these now supposedly noble old, (mostly) men in suits, have had a leading role in Cyprus's corruption, to which we have almost all partook. This corrupt state and society have produced a thoughtless, sheepish youth which has now been burdened with living in the mess they created and with the responsibility of cleaning in up. 

This about the vote. Now what about what's at stake.

In the past four days I have felt more confused and stressed out than probably in the past year all-together. And if you know me you'll know that that's an 'achievement'.

My confusion mostly comes from having read countless expert-opinions of economists and many pseudo-experts and trying to decipher what they are saying in my head. Being a Politics PhD the only way I can put this in perspective is by referring to interests. 

According to economist Mr Varoufakis imposing a hair-cut on big-investors is in the interest of the Cypriot people. I understand his arguments. Why should the rich, many of whom reportedly criminals, not bear the burden for this? Varoufakis calls for an exemption of those with savings under 100 000, which would make the hair-cut legal but not pain-free. However, I wonder, how can adopting a policy, which just by it being suggested, destroyed the basis of the Cypriot economy hence forever hampering recovery, be in the interest of the majority of Cypriots?Though I share the sentiment and conviction behind Mr Varoufakis's arguments, in this case giving the rich what is proverbially coming to them will not 'save' us...

The interests of Cyprus as a whole have obviously not been taken into consideration from any of the parties which agreed on the bail-out plan, including the Cypriot President and his Finance Minister. After the vote it seems that the government is looking to Russia to bail-out one of its over-sized, condemned banks. Further, the government is becoming more and more depended  on Cyprus's natural gas reserves which have already started being used as collateral, even though they are far from being out of the ground. Since Cyprus's finance and services sector and tourism industry have been badly hurt from this, natural gas will become more and more important in the coming years. Having the reserve seems like a blessing right now, but we should be aware that it may become problematic if Cyprus becomes overly depended on it. See Yemen for example. 

Natural gas is the name of the game in the Eastern Mediterranean  It has been for years. Cyprus, Turkey, Israel, Greece, Russia and now Germany are some of the players in it. Cyprus has now become not so much a participator but the latest field where this game is played out. 

Another 'enviable' role Cyprus is now playing is that of the victim of the looting expeditions mounted by big financial centers who are vying for the attentions of Cyprus's foreign investors. Frankfurt, Luxembourg  Latvia, London, New York, Moscow and Singapore all stand to gain.

Geopolitics is the last component of this picture, as I see it so far -I will most probably change my mind by tomorrow. The No vote has lessened the impact of the bail-out plan on the alliance of Russia and Cyprus. The failure to do that would have resulted in the Republic of Cyprus losing one of its few 'friends' in the international arena after the 2004 'No' vote on the Anna Plan. Such a development would favor Turkey and could have meant the permanent division of the island.

Now, reportedly Russia, which is slowly losing its Syrian base in the midst of the crisis there, may seek a base in Cyprus. This will make for awkward bed-fellows as Cyprus is already home to two British bases. This would be fun to watch!

A final thought: Can someone tell Cyprus's Archbishop to stay quiet? We all understand that he loves the sound of his own voice and how he looks on TV and we indulged him in his hobby of appearing on all news channels during the elections. Now things are serious. If someone can pass this message to him I would be grateful.

Thank you!