On Cyprus Part 3 - What we Can Know for Sure

The night after the Cypriot government and the Troika came to an agreement, I finally managed to sleep. Not because the half-finished agreement was a good one, but because knowing is better than not knowing. 

This was so until I realized that we still don't know much about what has been agreed -if anything. 

The initial plan was to split Cyprus's second biggest bank -Laiki- into a good bank and a bad bank. The good bank, where the loans that are being paid off and accounts of those who have less than 100 000 would go, would be absorbed by the Bank of Cyprus, while the bad bank would eventually disappear. Another part of the plan was to cut the deposits of those with more than 100 000 at the Bank of Cyprus by 30%. Though the percentage was not finalised. 

Last night we learned that deposits at the bad bank could be cut at up to 80%, I am guessing to pay off the 9 billion euros Laiki borroed from the European Liquidation Assistance -which incidentally is only allowed to lent money to healthy organisations, which Laiki was not- and in the Bank of Cyprus by 50%. 

To be honest I really do not care about Russian money, and since Cyprus's economic model has been destroyed, the latest news are only the nail in its coffin. However, I do care about Cypriot business, big and small that employed thousands. By the latest estimates 9 out of 10 businesses will close and according to Paul Krugman, the GDP is expected to fall by 20%. 

Even more modest estimates than these would be enough to ensure that Cyprus will be led to a new bail-out deal within a year. Krugman suggests that Cyprus's best option is to leave the euro and return to the cypriot pound. I am not an economist, but I think that the government should now seriously consider all options and possibilities.

Simultaneously with the mangling of the Cypriot economy great changes are taking place in the geopolitical and energy map of the Eastern Mediterranean as a result of, the expected, Turkish aggression and, the unexpected, Israeli remorseful-ness which is slowly leading to a rapproachment between the two states. 

So in the midst of all of this and the, now, increasing levels of anxiety and uncertainty I am feeling I have been trying to put together what it is that Cypriots can know for sure today. 

Larnaca in better days- after the latest re-development

The first is that things will get really tough. Jobs will be lost, houses and businesses will be foreclosed and we will not have the luxuries we had before. However, in the absence of things to identify ourselves with, we may be able to finally see who we have become and what matters and potentially manage to tap into the structures of Cypriot society that allowed it to bounce up from the war of 1974 and eventually prosper. These structures lie, today, buried deep under Louis Vuitton bags, iphones, Mercedes, BMWs and big houses staffed with women and men who the majority of Cypriots viewed as servants first and humans second. 

Thus, things getting tough, in the long run, may not be a bad thing as long as we rise up and become more human in the process. 

The second thing we know for sure is that our politicians are inept. They have for the thousandth time in Cyprus's modern history displayed lack of forethought, sane planning and  any vestiges of prudence. I am now afraid that these characteristics will also destroy any chance of future development resulting from Cyprus's natural gas reserves, in the same way that they have, so far, stopped any progress being made in the Cyprus issue. 

The third thing is that the previous government and AKEL are the root of this destruction and that the rhetoric being pursued by AKEL today may be the root of  an upcoming chaos. It's rhetoric has, as expected  but regretfully, been irresponsible and populist and is paving the way for the rise of the extreme right-wing ELAM. 

In saying the above, I am not demanding that the previous government or Cypriot MPs be put on trial for the chaos today. Not because I don't want justice, but because I know we will never get it and will spend years and a lot of energy that could be better spend. 

The fourth thing we now know for sure is that  Greece and Russia are not Cyprus's mother and sister countries respectively. Cyprus is once again paying not only for its mistakes but, it seems, primarily for Greek mistakes that the cut of the Greek government bonds was supposed to ameliorate, costing Cypriot banks 5 billion euros in the process. 

Thus, I hope that due to this realization we will not be seeing anymore Greek flags in the streets being waved triumphantly whenever DISY wins an election. The dream of Enosis, I am hoping, will finally die in the imagination of Cypriots along with ideas of solidarity between 'sovereign' states because of ethnic or religious or other affinities.

The fifth thing we should by now know for sure, as Europeans, is that the EU is not a political union driven by solidarity. It has in this process been blatantly revealed to be the vehicle of a new German power grab in the road to hegemony. In the process, it has created a new underclass of dependent peoples and the long-term result of this can only be bleak. 

The final thing Cypriots should know for sure is that we can and should make it. We will need to unlearn behaviors that were alien to us in the first place, work together and probably migrate, in the case of the young, to survive. However, none of these things are necessarily tragic, though, they are difficult. 

By having each other's back we may be able to survive. 

Κύπρος - Πέρι Σωφροσύνης

Απ'ότι φαίνεται την Τρίτη η Κυπριακή Βουλή έπαιξε το τελευταίο της χαρτί. 

Οι Κύπριοι πολιτικοί δεν αποδείχτηκαν 'λεβέντες' όπως είπαν πολλοί που μάλλον ξέχασαν το ρόλο των ίδιων πολιτικών στη διαιώνιση των προβλημάτων της κυπριακής οικονομίας. Με την υποστήριξη όχι μόνο της κυπριακής κοινής γνώμης αλλά και της ξένης ειδησιογραφίας και της γνώμης οικονομολόγων, εγχώριων και μη, η απόφασή τους ήταν σχετικά εύκολη. 

Φυλακές στο Επταπύργιο - Θεσσαλονίκη

Αντίθετα η συμφωνία που πάρθηκε στο Eurogroup στις 15 Μαρτίου ήταν δύσκολη και, εκ του αποτελέσματος, λανθασμένη. Η απορία που έχω εγώ είναι ποια κριτήρια οδήγησαν την Κυπριακή πλευρά στη συμφωνία. 

Ακούσαμε τους πολιτικούς όλων των κομμάτων, και τον Προέδρο, να μιλούν για σωφροσύνη. Η σωφροσύνη σύμφωνα με τους αρχαίους Έλληνες και ειδικά τον Αριστοτέλη, αποτελεί την ανώτατη πολιτική αρετή. Σωφροσύνη δεν σημαίνει επιφυλακτικότητα στο σημείο της απραξίας, αντίθετα, είναι η ικανότητα του πολιτικού να μετρήσει τις συνέπειες των πιθανοτήτων που έχει μπροστά του και να πάρει μια τεκμηριωμένη απόφαση ως προ το τι θα πράξει. Τέλος ο σώφρον πολιτικός πρέπει να ικανός όπου χρειάζεται να πάρει δύσκολες αποφάσεις που μπορεί να μην διαφαίνονται σε άλλους.

Όπως φαίνεται στον κ. Αναστασιάδη έλειπε η σωφροσύνη σε μία  κατάσταση όπου και ο πιο σώφρον πολιτικός μάλλον θα έβρισκε ιδιαίτερες δυσκολίες να διαχειριστεί. Επιπλέον, το ότι φτάσαμε ως εδώ σήμερα μαρτυρά πως στην Κύπρο γενικά δεν έχουμε σώφρονες πολιτικούς, ούτε σκεπτόμενους πολίτες. 

Τώρα για που;

Παρά τις θριαμβολογίες που ακολούθησαν το ψήφισμα στη βουλή, ήταν ήδη φανερό πως το μπαλάκι  είναι στα γήπεδα της Ρωσίας και της ΕΕ/ Γερμανίας.

Κατά τη γνώμη μου τώρα θα πρέπει να αναλογιστούμε τα πιο κάτω. 

Η Ρωσία δεν η μία αγαθοεργής αδερφή-πατρίδα. Τέτοιες χώρες υπάρχουν μόνο στη σφαίρα της φαντασίας του μη σκεπτόμενου Κύπριου. Τώρα η Ρωσία, η οποία είναι συνένοχος στη σφαγή χιλίαδων αμάχων στη Συρία, ψάχνει για εναλλακτική ναυτική βάση στη Μεσόγειο. Από τη στιγμή που υπάρχουν αγγλικές βάσεις στην Κύπρο, και η ΕΕ έχει στρατηγική συμφωνία με το ΝΑΤΟ, η Κύπρος αδυνατεί να προσφέρει στους Ρώσους αυτό που επιθυμούν αφού μια τυχόν συμφωνία παραχώρησης ναυτικής βάσης θα έβγαζε την Κύπρο από το ευρώ και την ΕΕ και θα την έβαζε στη σφαίρα επιρροής της Ρωσίας, ενός ολιγαρχικού και αυταρχικού ενίοτε κράτους....

Όπως φαίνεται το εάν και πόσο θα βοηθήσει η Ρωσία εξαρτάτε από το σε ποιο βαθμό θέλει να κοντράρει τη Γερμανία που την άφησε έξω από το τραπέζι των διαπραγματεύσεων στο  Eurogroup. Αυτό θα εξαρτηθεί μόνο από τον υπολογισμό των συμφερόντων της Ρωσίας και όχι από αισθήματα αλληλεγγύης προς τη Κύπρο. 

Η Γερμανική κυβέρνηση αυτή τη στιγμή επίσης βλέπει πως θα βγει όσον περισσότερο γίνεται κερδισμένη από την κατάσταση. Ήδη μεγάλες καταθέσεις εισρέουν από Κύπρο προς Φραγκφούρτη. Επίσης η σκληρή στάση της Μέρκελ υπολογίζετε πως θα βοηθήσει το κόμμα της στις επερχόμενες εκλογές. 

Τέλος, η Κυπριακή εκκλησία. Αφού έχει φτάσει ο κόμπος στο χτένι ο Αρχιεπίσκοπος Χρυσόστομος Β' αποφάσισε να βάλει την τεράστια εκκλησιαστική περιουσία στα χέρια του κράτους. Αλλά με ποιο αντάλλαγμα;  

Η κυπριακή εκκλησία δεν είναι ένας αγαθοεργής οργανισμός. Εάν ήταν, δεν θα ήταν δυνατόν να είναι μία από τις μεγαλύτερες επιχειρήσεις της χώρας. Επομένως ένας σώφρον πολιτικός θα αναρωτιόταν ποιες θα είναι οι επιπτώσεις αυτής της κίνησης της εκκλησίας.

Πολλοί θεωρούν πως ο Αρχιεπίσκοπος θέλει να μετέχει στα κέρδη από το φυσικό αέριο. Μακάρι να είναι έτσι. 

Εγώ προσωπικά φοβάμαι πως ο Αρχιεπίσκοπος ο οποίος δεν έχει εκλεγεί σε κάποιο πολιτικό αξίωμα, θα απαιτήσει να έχει καρέκλα και λόγο στο πολιτικό τραπέζι. 

Αυτό θα πρέπει να προβληματίσει αφού αναιρεί ακόμα περισσότερο το διαχωρισμό εκκλησίας κράτους. Τέλος οι ως τώρα θέσεις και η υβριστική προδιάθεση που έχει επιδείξει ο Αρχιεπίσκοπος  πρέπει να μας φοβίζουν αφού ο πολιτικός του λόγος λιγότερο θυμίζει δημοκρατία παρά τους Ταλιμπάν και τη σταυροφορική διάθεση των Bush και Blair που οδήγησαν τις χώρες τους στον αιματηρό αχρείαστο πόλεμο του Ιράκ που κλείνει αυτό το μήνα δέκα χρόνια.

On Cyprus Part 2 - Votes and Interests

0 - 36 - 19. And now the games continue...

This development was not unexpected. The Cypriot Parliament had the backing not only of Cypriots and Russians in saying No but also of most of the world's expert opinion. This obviously made the 'heroic' decision of the Cypriot politicians far easier to make. 

However, they took their time making it, most of them while indulging in patriotic/ party and other forms of propaganda. The most destructive in this sense was Mr Kyprianou of AKEL who, as it seems, thought that he was campaigning in some sort of election, showing us all that Cyprus lacks a responsible Left with any sense of self-awareness and, most importantly, shame. Apart from Mr. Kyprianou who infuriated all of twitter, facebook and the world in general, other politicians seemed like they were expecting a round of applause  from their audience, which was of course bigger than usual since the debate was televised. 

Mr Karogian I am talking about you! 

Cloud over a Cypriot street

In Cyprus we have learned to say 'Δεν Ξεχνώ' (I don't forget), from a young age in reference to the Turkish invasion and occupation. Though this is not the time to point fingers, we should also not forget that these now supposedly noble old, (mostly) men in suits, have had a leading role in Cyprus's corruption, to which we have almost all partook. This corrupt state and society have produced a thoughtless, sheepish youth which has now been burdened with living in the mess they created and with the responsibility of cleaning in up. 

This about the vote. Now what about what's at stake.

In the past four days I have felt more confused and stressed out than probably in the past year all-together. And if you know me you'll know that that's an 'achievement'.

My confusion mostly comes from having read countless expert-opinions of economists and many pseudo-experts and trying to decipher what they are saying in my head. Being a Politics PhD the only way I can put this in perspective is by referring to interests. 

According to economist Mr Varoufakis imposing a hair-cut on big-investors is in the interest of the Cypriot people. I understand his arguments. Why should the rich, many of whom reportedly criminals, not bear the burden for this? Varoufakis calls for an exemption of those with savings under 100 000, which would make the hair-cut legal but not pain-free. However, I wonder, how can adopting a policy, which just by it being suggested, destroyed the basis of the Cypriot economy hence forever hampering recovery, be in the interest of the majority of Cypriots?Though I share the sentiment and conviction behind Mr Varoufakis's arguments, in this case giving the rich what is proverbially coming to them will not 'save' us...

The interests of Cyprus as a whole have obviously not been taken into consideration from any of the parties which agreed on the bail-out plan, including the Cypriot President and his Finance Minister. After the vote it seems that the government is looking to Russia to bail-out one of its over-sized, condemned banks. Further, the government is becoming more and more depended  on Cyprus's natural gas reserves which have already started being used as collateral, even though they are far from being out of the ground. Since Cyprus's finance and services sector and tourism industry have been badly hurt from this, natural gas will become more and more important in the coming years. Having the reserve seems like a blessing right now, but we should be aware that it may become problematic if Cyprus becomes overly depended on it. See Yemen for example. 

Natural gas is the name of the game in the Eastern Mediterranean  It has been for years. Cyprus, Turkey, Israel, Greece, Russia and now Germany are some of the players in it. Cyprus has now become not so much a participator but the latest field where this game is played out. 

Another 'enviable' role Cyprus is now playing is that of the victim of the looting expeditions mounted by big financial centers who are vying for the attentions of Cyprus's foreign investors. Frankfurt, Luxembourg  Latvia, London, New York, Moscow and Singapore all stand to gain.

Geopolitics is the last component of this picture, as I see it so far -I will most probably change my mind by tomorrow. The No vote has lessened the impact of the bail-out plan on the alliance of Russia and Cyprus. The failure to do that would have resulted in the Republic of Cyprus losing one of its few 'friends' in the international arena after the 2004 'No' vote on the Anna Plan. Such a development would favor Turkey and could have meant the permanent division of the island.

Now, reportedly Russia, which is slowly losing its Syrian base in the midst of the crisis there, may seek a base in Cyprus. This will make for awkward bed-fellows as Cyprus is already home to two British bases. This would be fun to watch!

A final thought: Can someone tell Cyprus's Archbishop to stay quiet? We all understand that he loves the sound of his own voice and how he looks on TV and we indulged him in his hobby of appearing on all news channels during the elections. Now things are serious. If someone can pass this message to him I would be grateful.

Thank you!

On Cyprus - Awkward Beginnings

Against my better judgement, here I am, blogging. 

I had no inclination to do this. It takes time, effort and means that my thoughts, words and feelings are going to be 'out-there' for people to commend on and judge. I usually have no problem with this, as long as I have spent months preparing a paper or article for the consumption of the four or so people who read them, on average.

And then Cyprus happened.

December in Cyprus

It is strange how, despite my better judgement, I have an emotional connection with a state which infuriates me and rejects me for being of mixed-race, a woman, young, atheist etc etc etc. As it seems, I really do care about the place and what happens to it. I guess it is ingrained in all of us, living in sovereign states that, even against our better judgement, we care more about what happens to our fellow citizens than to the citizens of other states. This, despite the fact that my fellow-citizens are on average: vain, uninformed, xenophobic and in general hugely infuriating human beings, individually and collectively taken. 

So for the last couple of weeks I have had a visceral reaction to developments in Cyprus. Not that I don't usually react, angrily more often than not, to the general state of the country and its public. But these past two weeks have been 'special'.

First it was the crucial presidential election which determined who would lead Cyprus during the bail-out talks. The election illustrated once more that we are constantly losing the plot. 'Right-wing' supporters of DISI were out celebrating with Greek flags, arguing that their flags were relevant because 'we' are proud to be Greek- Orthodox. As if Greek and orthodox are two words that go together in any sense. On the other hand the 'left-wing' supporters of AKEL were reciting numbers to prove that their President, the ex-President of the island, who, it is the general assessment, more or less drove the country to distraction due to his incompetence, was more popular when he was elected. They were also shouting that the new President was a fascist traitor. Because, as they seem to claim THIS was the time to settle old scores and determine who was to blame for the 1974 coup and the following invasion. 

Now, we have the bail-out plan. Which in essence has made me into a blogger. It seems that Brussels needed to try this out and selected to do so in a state which has a sheepish population, which was on a 'holiday' dancing in the streets, while the basis of its economy was being destroyed. Whether that basis was defend-able  since it was based mainly on Russian money gained or stolen in the aftermath of the breakup of the Soviet Union, is not for me to judge. What is certain is that the economy has been damaged and/or destroyed. 

Who is to blame beyond Brussels is also debatable. I wonder whether, as an economist pointed out on RIK  (the Cypriot state TV) today, this was another case of Cypriots going into a negotiation without a plan B.

It seems that Cypriot politicians are doing a good job in proving that no EU-state is irrelevant. However, the question remains: what now?  I see no viable choices here and I really hope I am wrong...

So what would be the consequences of an acceptance of seizure of a percentage of private savings? In my humble opinion the most important consequence of an acceptance of this measure in any form is the fact that the social contract between democratically elected governments and their constituents, which stipulates the latter's right to property, has been broken. With it, political rights gained from 1789-on in the road to 'liberty' are being violated.

Political rights and liberties are violated left, right and center. We only need to have a look at what is happening to Muslims in the US for example to realize the extent of the problem facing us. It is not far-fetched to argue that we are now inhabiting the world de Tocqueville describes as quite pleasant but without liberty.

 So what's next?

Maybe we will end up in a kind of 'Matrix', not run by machines but by a tutelary government, either backed or run by multinationals...

I, for one, am really not looking forward to it... 

I didn't even like that movie...